Tuesday 11 March 2014

Malaysia Flight MH370, the possibilities?

A Malaysia Airlines 777-200ER taking off last year

It has now been days since the Boeing 777-200ER aircraft disappeared whilst en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpa however the mystery over its disappearance is still present with no sign of the aircraft found. So what are the options? What could have possibly happened to the aircraft?

Terrorism


Perhaps it is possible that the aircraft could have been the target of a terrorist attack with a bomb smuggled on board. People will remember the tragic bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over the Scottish town of Lockerbie which saw the complete destruction of the aircraft killing everyone on board as well as some on the ground. There has already been concern about passengers travelling with stolen stolen passports however the authorities have ruled out their involvement in terrorism.

Hijacking


In a post 9/11 world it is now much more difficult to launch a hijacking upon an aircraft as new procedures have been brought in to make it more difficult. Cockpit doors are now rarely left unlocked so entry would be even more difficult for a hijacker. However if there was a failing of this then a hijacker could have made their way into the cockpit and taken control of the aircraft. Another possibility would be that there could have been a struggle which resulted in the aircraft crashing, such as the fourth 9/11 flight heading for the White House that ended up crashed in a field.

Structural Failure


The aircraft was less than twelve years old which is not very old, however passenger planes are used extensively with cyclic stresses potentially leading to cracks forming and structural failure later. As a result, checks are regularly undertaken on aircraft for cracks and any found are dealt with. The Boeing 777 is widely regarded as a safe aircraft with a good safety record overall. Due to the altitude and a pressurised cabin an explosive decompression could occur if a crack gave way and lead to the complete destruction of the aircraft or just loss of various systems.

Mistaken identity


In 1988 Iran Air Flight 655 was mistaken for an Iranian F-14 fighter aircraft as it flew towards a US Navy Guided Missile Cruiser en route to Dubai International Airport and was shot down as a result. This resulted in a complete loss of the aircraft. It is unclear if any warships were in position in the area at the time that could have mistaken the aircraft and also, unlike Flight 655, there is no war occurring nearby.

Additional Points


There are also other factors to take into account such as the fact that no Mayday was called at any time which may or may not rule out some of the options above. Also, the delay between when the aircraft was lost on radar and the time when it was reported was an hour and twenty minutes which is a considerable amount of time and seems to be somewhat suspicious. Until the aircraft or parts of the aircraft, especially the black boxes, are found then determining the cause of the disappearance is highly unlikely to be found.

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